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10
Feb

Obama wins in Maine.

CofCC.org Continued Election 2008 Coverage

The Deomcratic Party had a caucus in Maine today with 24 delegates at stake. Obama has won, and CNN predicts Obama will get 15 delegates and Clinton will get 9. This will put Obama and Clinton nearly neck in neck depending on which news agencies’ delegate estimates you go by.

CNN currently estimates that Clinton has 1,148 and Obama has 1,121. This means Obama will certainly pass up Clinton next Tuesday when Virginia, Maryland, and DC vote. Currently, Obama leads in delegates tied to caucuses and primaries, while Clinton leads in “superdelegates.”

Clinton will likely have to win both Ohio and Pennsylvania to stop Obama. This means that the fight for the Democratic nomination will drag on into at least late April. If Obama wins either Ohio or Pennsylvania there is the possibility of a heated and polarized fight on the floor of the Democratic National Convention. With blacks on Obama’s side, Hispanics on Clinton’s side and whites split between the two.

Ohio could be a major flare up in the internal Democrat Party war. The black precincts in Cincinnati, Cleveland, Dayton, and Toledo are notorious for being the last ones to turn in their results after the polls close. Even rural precincts, where the ballots have to be delivered long distances, get them in hours earlier than the inner city black precincts. However, no one ever investigates for fraud out of fear of being called a “racist.” Whites who volunteer to be poll workers in black precincts are often harassed so they never come back. Ohio is 13% black, which makes it a state that Clinton has an advantage since states with an average percentage of blacks are states Clinton tends to win big. If Obama were to win by a narrow margin, it would force the issue of widespread voting fraud in black precinct to the forefront.

The Democrats have 19 contests left including Maryland, DC, Puerto Rico, Wyoming, North Carolina, and Mississippi which will all be guaranteed big wins for Obama. Texas, with it’s large population of Hispanics should be easy for Clinton win. Texas is the state with the most delegates left. Ohio is the second.

Republicans have 18 contests left, because the do not award any delegates to Puerto Rico.